Since the beginning of this year, the supply and demand of coal and electricity have been tight, and some provinces and cities have once cut off electricity. Since the end of October, with the release of high-quality coal production capacity, railways and ports have accelerated shipment, and the coal storage of power plants, key power plants and power plants in eight coastal provinces across the country has exceeded the level of the same period last year, and the shutdown of thermal power units nationwide has been cleared due to lack of coal. In the peak season of coal use, the terminal continues to replenish the warehouse and the coal source structure is continuously optimized.
In November, coal prices remained basically stable, with little change in price. At the coal fair in early December, the reasonable range of coal prices was defined, and the overall downward trend of the market was established. In order to avoid risks, after the meeting, traders cut prices and reduced shipments. In the first half of December, the coal price dropped by 200 yuan/ton. Near the end of the year, everyone is waiting for the annual long-term association with lower prices, and the upstream and downstream bearish sentiment is consistent, and the market volume is reduced; It also makes the spot market supply limited, high-quality coal in short supply, and there will be no devastating decline. This week, the port quotation continued to decline slightly, and the outsourcing price of Shenhua was greatly reduced, which prompted the wait-and-see atmosphere to rise again; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are deserted under bearish expectations.
Affected by factors such as the big gap between cold winter and expectation, the coal consumption of the terminal power plant is less than that of the same period of last year, and the power plant has not been greatly destocking. Under the influence of the policy of ensuring supply, the upstream coal supply remains high, which leads to the high number of available days of coal storage at the terminal. At present, the total coal storage capacity of power plants in eight coastal provinces is 35.15 million tons, and the available days of coal storage are 16.6 days, while the inventory in 17 inland provinces has increased by 15.4 million tons. Because there are many low-calorie and high-sulfur coals in the guaranteed coal supply, the terminal inventory structure needs to purchase high-calorie and low-sulfur coals for coal blending, which is in the process of continuous improvement.
Affected by over-production and safety inspection, the situation of limited production and overhaul of coal mines in Shanxi has increased, and some coal mines are about to complete their annual tasks, and they have begun to reduce production and overhaul. In addition, due to the xiaoyi accident, the safety inspection in the area is further tightened. Considering the tight supply, the willingness of some coal enterprises in the downstream to replenish the warehouse has increased, supporting the good operation of coal prices in the producing areas, and the number of ships pulling coal from ports around the Bohai Sea has not decreased.
In the later period, affected by the cold wave weather, there will be an obvious cooling in most parts of the country as the winter solstice approaches. According to the weather forecast, from December 25th, the temperature in East and Central China dropped to near zero again. The recovery of demand and the acceleration of coal consumption have brought support to the market. By then, the electricity consumption of heating coal will also increase, and the terminal will return to the normal rhythm of going to the warehouse in the peak season. It is expected that the real cold winter will officially come after January. In the first half of January, the demand for replenishment of power plants will rise again, and coal transportation will be more busy. However, due to the off-season of coal consumption near the Spring Festival, industrial enterprises are about to stop production and have a holiday, so it is difficult for coal prices to fluctuate.